Jeff Jackson's Robots, Workers, and Wages article posted March 29, 2017 on website Writer Beat raises doubts about the possibility that President Donald Trump's policy will bring back jobs from overseas countries with corporations returning their factories to do things in America again. It raises doubts about the possibility of the old middle class getting back to work on the assembly lines with good wages, buying cars, homes, televisions, refrigerators, Budweiser and that everything will be okay with America.
Jeff Jackson says works in America will be made by robots that would be bought from Japan and Germany that factories will only hire a quarter of the former employees who used to do the jobs, and the robots will do the rest. Japan and Germany will make the robots. Jackson argues that the number of hours needed to produce, say, a car will be significantly reduced, and what were once considered the "man-hours" needed to produce things will drop significantly.
Jeff Jackson states that the United States is behind other countries and asks how long they will be able to make robots to use in American factories is yet to be seen. Jeff Jackson's Best Scenario: The government offers tax incentives to companies that produce robots. Seeing that robots are the future, producers who need robots collaborate with existing technology companies and create new specialized companies that utilize the manufacturing capabilities of technology companies and manufacturers and collectively create robots.
Jeff Jackson says the new companies decide to hire immigrants to help to produce the robots and outsource the rest. But the revolution of the robot reached the second, or possibly the third phase. This change is demonstrated by BlackRock, the financial powerhouse, in March 2017, which freed seven of its portfolio managers because robots choose stocks better than people. The job of choosing stocks for wallets, which requires a great deal of financial knowledge, has now been replaced by a robot. Wall Street is moving in the direction of robotics and soon all the financial geniuses who collect hundreds of millions of dollars will be out of a job. Robots will create more and more wealth and people will win less and less. The rich will become richer and the poor will become poorer.
There is every reason to believe that robots will replace human beings in the labor market. According to Brynjolfsson and McAfee, we have technologies that are shaping the world we are heading for. The threat to current jobs is quite evident. Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2025, up to a quarter of jobs will be replaced by softwares or robots, while a study by the University of Oxford in the UK points out that 35% of current jobs in the country run the risk of being automated in the next two decades [WAKEFIELD, Jane. Quais profissões estão ameaçadas pelos robôs? (What professions are threatened by robots?), Available on the website <http://www.bbc.com/portuguese/noticias/2015/09/150914_profissoes_robos_lgb>].
The professions most threatened by robots, according to Wakefield, are taxi drivers, factory workers, journalists, doctors, lawyers, office workers, freight delivery jobs, police officers, etc. Taxi drivers around the world are threatened by Uber as drivers in general by vehicle manufacturers that are already manufacturing units that exclude the presence of the driver. Factory workers are threatened because the assembly lines are being increasingly automated. The profession of journalist is threatened because in the near future, reports will no longer be written by journalists, but by software capable of collecting data and transforming it into minimally comprehensible texts. Doctors are threatened because some medical procedures are done more quickly by robots that are already helping doctors perform surgeries. Office workers are already being replaced by smart machines that perform countless of their tasks. Workers engaged in the delivery of goods will be replaced by drones or vehicles without a driver. Police and military will be replaced by robots.
It is believed that the economic effects of Artificial Intelligence on so-called cognitive human jobs (those formerly considered in the industrial age as "office work") will be analogous to the effects of automation and robotics on industrial manufacturing work, where workers eventually lose Jobs even possessing technical expertise, often specialized, loss that has negatively impacted on their social status and their ability to provide for their families. With labor becoming a less important factor in production compared to intellectual capital and the ability to use it to generate value, it is possible that most citizens may find it difficult to find work in the future [TIBAU, Marcelo. Inteligência Artificial e o mercado de trabalho (Artificial Intelligence and the labor market). Available on the website <http://www.updateordie.com/2016/10/08/artistic-intelligence-and-work-marketing>, 2016].
Another fact is obvious: robots often cost less than humans, work longer hours, and can perform less secure tasks. Experts believe that the intelligence of machines will match that of humans by 2050, thanks to a new era in their ability to learn. Computers are already beginning to assimilate information from collected data, just as children learn from the world around them. That means we are creating machines that can teach themselves to play computer games - and be very good at them - and also to communicate by simulating human speech, as with smartphones and their virtual assistant systems. But what will humans do when their abilities are no longer useful? For Martin Ford - author of the book Rise of the Robots, the world will face massive unemployment and a financial meltdown unless radical changes such as the guarantee of a minimum wage are implemented [WAKEFIELD, Jane. Inteligência artificial: máquinas que pensam devem surgir 'até 2050' (Artificial Intelligence: Thinking machines should emerge 'by 2050'). Available on the website <http://www.bbc.com/portuguese/noticias/2015/09/150916_inteligencia_artificial_maquinas_rb>, 2015].
On the technological advance, it should be noted that Gordon Earl Moore, co-founder of Intel Corporation, one of the world's largest processor companies, wrote in 1965 an article for Electronic Magazine that was published on April 19 of that year. The same year in which he conjectured about the fantastic evolution of technology from then on. And it was in these reflections that he made one of the most accurate predictions about computing in the last half century. Moore said that "the complexity for components with minimal costs has increased at a rate of approximately a factor of two per year". Certainly, in the short term, one can expect this rate to hold, if not increase. "In the long run, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe that it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. I believe large circuits like this could be built in a single component".
That's how Moore's Law came about, which says that the processing power of computers would double every 18 months. It's been 50 years since Moore created his "law". And even half a century later she remains strong and strong. It's an impressive brand, especially when it comes to hardware evolution. Supercomputers represent very well the evolution of Moore's Law processors. It's worth noting that Moore's Law does not only encompass the home processors we use on our computers. It holds for all types of processors in use, from calculators and digital cameras to supercomputers. The semiconductor industry, seeing that they could achieve the goal that Moore had spoken of in their article, went on to invest heavily in research and development, so that in fact they managed to double the number of transistors in the processors every 18 months.
All that has just been exposed calls into question the purpose of the Donald Trump administration to bring jobs back to the United States. Technological progress will inevitably have three consequences: 1) the decline in consumption or general demand for goods and services due to the increase in unemployment and the reduction of the purchasing power of the working population; (2) the decline of the middle class with major implications of a political nature since it acts as an ally of the bourgeoisie; And, 3) the weakening of the struggle of the unions in favor of the workers. The political consequences of the end of employment thanks to technological advances are quite serious because the population needs to work to survive. This may open the way for the advent of a social upheaval with unpredictable consequences.
* Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems.