The Worm Turns

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“Treade a worme on the tayle, and it must turne agayne.” 1564 proverb, John Heywood

It seems that the climate change worm may be a-turning!

But then something new happened! Blogs, articles and papers are appearing touting solar influences on climate change, doubts cast upon the projections of global climate models. See here, here and here. Solar and orbital influences on observed climate variation seem to be gaining increased acceptance, in contradiction to the IPCC’s continuing insistence on human causation.


This is a good sign of a trend toward climate change sanity and rejection of the climate change obsession of past decades. The IPCC’s stranglehold on public opinion is beginning to loosen. Critical thinking is peeping above the miasma of political and economic thought control.


I have long cautioned against embracing the Global Warming consensus, from the standpoint of potential loss of respect for science when the anthropogenic global warming proposition is inevitably proven false. But now it seems that science and critical thinking may be making inroads into unsupported faith and unquestioned acceptance. The evidence for the limitations of the anthropogenic CO2 hypothesis, and the reality of the complex system of natural solar, orbital, cosmic, atmospheric and oceanic drivers of climate variation are growing daily.


The alarmists continue to tilt against the windmills of solar luminance variation and Milankovich Cycles, claiming, without evidence, that such influences are minor and ineffective when compared to their favored CO2 thermostat model. They huddle in a linear Cartesian world, fingers in their ears at any mention of nonlinear processes, complexity theory and chaotic adaptive systems.


It is not any single driver that results in observed climate variation. Climate is an emergent property of the chaotic, nonlinear, solar/atmospheric/oceanic adaptive systems, that is unpredictable in meaningful human chronologies. It is also unresponsive to manipulation of human CO2 output. It is the combination of all cycles of natural climate drivers that results in constantly varying, highly diverse climates that are beyond human control.


We’ll see how this trend plays out and how much the worm turns on the climate change consensus. It’s about time!


Utpal Patel Added May 17, 2017 - 1:37am
I put this article in the category of wishful thinking.  There could be reams of data proving global warming* is false and the alarmists would still reject this data as their mind has been made up.  In textbooks across America’s public schools climate change is taught in class as fact.  I think the only chance we have of muting the alarmists is to concede the fact the earth is warming and focus on the fact we don’t have any idea why. 
*I can’t stand the phrase climate change, this makes the alarmists right no matter what the temperature is.  If they are going to perpetuate the theory climate change is occurring, they at least need to decide if it’s getting warmer or cooler.  Besides, isn’t the climate always in a state of flux?
Dino Manalis Added May 17, 2017 - 8:34am
The climate always changes, that's normal, it's gradually getting warmer, probably for various reasons, we should avoid radical actions, try not to pollute the environment without ruining the economy.  Science also evolves with new discoveries, it's not settled.
Heyduke Added May 17, 2017 - 11:34am
The term "climate change" is most accurate. Climate does change and always has changed. The question is "Is observed climate changed natural or caused by human activities?"
"The earth" is not warming. At the moment, the lower troposphere is in a warming phase. The heat energy from that warming is moving to higher latitudes by atmospheric circulation and is absorbed by the ocean, where it moves to northern latitudes by ocean circulation. Heat energy is released to the atmosphere and escapes into space.
The climate change we have observed since the mid-1800s is natural variation, in warming and cooling cycles, which is not coupled to atmospheric CO2 increase over the same time period.
Norton Louis Added May 17, 2017 - 2:01pm
Michael...I concur.  Most that hold an opinion on global warming conveniently (and in ignorance) overlook the giant space heater in the center of our solar system.  Based on geologic evidence, it is a proven FACT that the sun has radiant cycles of 11, 22, hundreds, thousands  and epochal years.  Add in a little volcanism, asteroid strike, etc. and over time we must accept the NORM for our planet is climate change.  Ice age anyone?  
Franky it is embarrassing and pathetic that the popular version of TRUTH about climate change is one where the human race views the climate as steady and unchanging based on our short lifetimes.  As to CO2 emissions......Oxygen levels where much higher and CO2 levels were much lower during Earth's Pleistocene era.....when the planet was one giant hothouse.  For those of you that ascribe to the contemporary religion of climate change; how do you explain this apparent dichotomy of a greenhouse and low CO2 levels?  Hmm?  Perhaps increased radiant energy from the sun?
Heyduke Added May 17, 2017 - 2:17pm
Thanks Norton. I just want to clarify one point you made regarding the Pleistocene, which is the most recent glacial period before the current Holocene. Did you mean some other ...ocene when the prevailing climate was hot, not cold?
Norton Louis Added May 17, 2017 - 2:55pm
Whoops..yes Paleocene not Pleistocene; warmest epoch on record known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). 
There were also periods of hothouse activity on the planet in the Mesozoic (dinosaur) era just prior to the PETM
Thomas Napers Added May 18, 2017 - 3:08am
I disagree, nothing regarding climate change will be proven.  So long as everyone is in agreement the climate is changing, there will be no way to prove how much of this change is related to human activity versus natural causes.  Even if the link between humans and climate is minuscule, the alarmists will still have the argument that we should do something about the difference we are responsible for.  I think the debate is largely political at this point.  Democrats use climate change to justify increased taxes and regulations and Republicans represent push-back to increased taxes and regulations.  The only question I have is how much sacrifice we make to fight climate change to do nothing about climate change?
Mircea Negres Added May 19, 2017 - 2:50am
Climate isn't one thing, but the combination of many systems and their effects upon each other. It is one of the most complex systems out there (I think such a level of complexity is called "wicked" by scientists) and difficult to model accurately in view of humanity's limited knowledge and types of inputs it seeks for the data models. I don't know how big human influence is on it, but I think climate is changing, that it has never really been stable and it will eventually become something we don't recognize and for which we are not prepared. About the worm turning, here's a really good quote from the movie Wolf:

Mary: Is the worm turning, Mr. Randall?
Will Randall: The worm has turned and it is now packing an Uzi, Mary.
Mary: It's about fucking time, sir.
Mark Hunter Added Jan 22, 2018 - 12:41am
Okay, now I need to go see the movie Wolf.