- In the event of a Red State/Blue State Civil War, Blue States would likely win because: 1) they have vastly more economic resources; 2) they are in the position to be supplied by sea or by Canada or Mexico and 3) could execute a version of Winfield Scott's "Anaconda Plan" by blockading the Red State Ports in the Southeast, on the Great Lakes or on the Gulf and could use control of the Mississippi to divide the Red States.
- Civil War, of any kind, is unlikely. The exact nature of any such Civil War is unpredictable due to a currently fluid political and economic situation.
- The Federal Government, however, is in some kind of a crisis of legitimacy.
- Because of this crisis and the fact that the Blue State strategy is both apparent and possible to counter, there are limited windows of opportunity for a Red State victory in the event of such a conflict.
- All modern wars are Information Operations ("IO") wars and civil wars are particularly so.
The Blue State center of gravity is control of the current US Navy and Air Force (the Air Force as a function of AirSea Battle doctrine).
One immediate step to counter this advantage is to sway the loyalties of Navy and Air Force personnel, particularly (but not exclusively) those based or home-ported in Red States.
Ideally, they would take their assets with them at the beginning of hostilities. However, if many of these personnel simply deserted or scuttled their equipment, as the French Navy did in Toulon in 1942 rather than turn their fleet over to the Nazis, that would be a tremendous help as it would make it difficult (if not impossible) to do an effective blockade.
In the same way, serving Army and Marine Corps personnel, especially those based in Red States also would be a lucrative IO target, getting them to either join the cause, taking their equipment with them or to desert, sabotaging their equipment.
Finally, causing Army/Air National Guard units and Reserve Units in Red States to remain loyal to their states (and in Red areas of Blue States, to remain loyal to the Red State Cause) would also be a critical task.
It is possible that organizations like The Oath Keepers are intended (consciously or unconsciously) to facilitate such things in the event that the circumstances degenerated to that degree.
Red States would need to coordinate in advance with Canada and Mexico to insure, in the event of a break down of the current dispensation, that goods coming to or from Blue States would be embargoed by those nations and that Red State goods would not be.
Since the current Canadian and Mexican governments appear to be more aligned with the Blue States than the Red, this appears to be an unlikely outcome. However, on closer examination, a Red State victory would advantage both nations more than a continuation of the status quo ante.
The Red States could promise to align the US-Mexican border pursuant to a plebiscite, likely resulting in a territorial and economic gain for Mexico . . . and a much more enforceable border for the Red States. In the event of a decisive Red State victory, Canada would likely gain significant and valuable territory in New England and the Mid-Atlantic as well as the Pacific Northwest
Given the Red States more libertarian orientation it could prove difficult to coordinate war aims, so having some kind of coordinating committee in lace even before the out break of hostilities could prove useful.
3. Operational Considerations
Many of the Blue States have significant Red Areas, such as: Western and Central New York and Pennsylvania: Orange County and the Central Valley in California; and Southern New Jersey. Separating this terrain to make the Blue States less viable should be an initial operational goal.
This would advance the strategic goal of convincing Canada and Mexico that: 1) the Red States can win; and 2) it would be to Canada and Mexico's advantage if this did happen.
Attempting to use the Navy and Air assets that "come over" to "blockade the blockade" would be a version of what Vercingetorix attempted to do to lift the Roman siege of Alesia, although it should be remembered that that tactic ultimately failed.
4. Tactical Considerations
The rugged, generally cross-compartmented terrain and the well developed Line of Communications (and their alternatives) make consideration of geography and position ("Battlefield Geometry") critical to war fighting at a tactical level.
This is especially true where one side has significantly less resources and where American Military Art has focused on the idea of attrition since at least the time of Grant.
Generally, Red State forces should focus on seizing key terrain and forcing Blue State forces to attack them to minimize Red State Casualties and maximize Blue State Casualties, a version of Dupay's Active Defense Doctrine from the first edition of FM 100-5, a view of combat that grew out of the realization that the US Army would have to fight out-numbered against a numerically superior and lethal foe.
Further, as with every war since the Peninsular War of 200 years or so ago, guerrillas, partisans and other non conventional forces are a key consideration.
For example, due to maintenance issues in the US Army today, both sides will probably be able to capture major end items (such as Tanks, IFVs, Reconnaissance Vehicles and Self-propelled Artillery) which have broken down by the side of the road and partisans would likely take a major part in that.
The effect of gangs in Blue State Cities, such as New York, LA and Chicago is difficult to predict.
On one hand, the people who make up these organizations are inured to violence and often have strong interpersonal links with people in the highest portions of society through the underground economy (as described in Floating City). On the other, these organizations usually work for their own advantage and might be reached.'s
The aftermath of any change of government should include mechanisms to compensate people for losses and to reconcile people, as with the Dayton Conference after the Bosnian War and the South African Truth and Reconciliation Committee.
In the event of a Red State/Blue State Civil War, a new Constitutional Convention should be held, probably someplace near the center of the Country, like Independence, Missouri, which would make a more reasonable location for a seat of the Federal Government than Washington, D.C.