Cato Working Paper No. 35 — How Well Has It Held Up? (Part 3)

Crossposted from my blog.


This is a long article so it is best you print it out first before reading it. Thank you.


Now I will come to the conclusion of this three-part series ad show you how well Michaels and Knappenberger’s Climate Models and Climate Reality: A Closer Look at a Lukewarming World has held up. Because if the trends indicating a gross overprediction in the IPCC CMIP-5 model runs, a slower warming and a smaller climate sensitivity, which are the Cato paper’s conclusions, are broken, then their conclusions are liable to be ill-founded as well, which means we could be right back at the IPCC’s median estimate of 3.0 deg C ECS (Equilibrium Climate Science) sensitivity---give or take 1.5 deg C.


First, let me show you a very recent graph presented by climate scientist Gavin Schmidt of NASA’s GISS: