This week Paul Ryan announced he would not seek re-election as have a myriad of other Republicans over the last year. Why, is obvious. The GOP is in for a shellacking in the mid-term elections. The Democrats will take back the House and likely the Senate.
Many blame Trump. I don't. The fate of the GOP is their own dammed fault.
Yes. The leftist irrational hatred for Trump will have an impact. Leftist would crawl over broken glass to vent their collective spleens.
"To the last, I grapple with thee; From Hell's heart, I stab at thee; For hate's sake, I spit my last breath at thee." -- Herman Melville (Moby Dick)
Yes. History is a factor too. The party not holding the Presidency consistently loses seats in the legislature in the midterms.
BUT... neither of these is THE main reason the GOP is doomed in 2018. So, why is the GOP doomed?
There are several political axioms that I hold to be true. I have repeated them verbatim (and in general) in my writings for years. Here is one...
"A moderate is someone who pauses in the middle of the road... before turning left.” — TexasLynn
Paul Ryan has lead a wave of GOP moderation for the last three years. Now that the chickens of moderation are coming home to roost, Mr. Ryan is ready to exist stage left.
The perfect example of moderation dooming the GOP is Obamacare; or more specifically the lack of repealing it. After much wailing and gnashing their teeth for seven years concerning Obamacare, and after passing a repeal SEVEN times (when Obama was President)… when Trump became President... NOTHING.
This might confuse the political novice who might ask… "Why didn't they just pass the same bill of repeal they passed seven times before". The answer is they can’t (or won’t… take your pick).
This might confuse the political novice who might ask… “Why not?” The simple answer is, once Trump was in office, they didn’t have the votes.
This might further confuse the political novice again, who might ask… "But they passed it before?" The answer to that is yes, but that was when they knew that the vote meant nothing, that was when they knew it would be vetoed. The GOP (mostly the moderates) was willing to stand on conservative principle only when conservative principles were guaranteed not to be applied.
Those repeal votes were the proverbial pause in the middle of the road... with their blinkers bright and shiny, flashing on the right side for all to see. But as soon as it counted, where the rubber meets the road... (as they always do) ... the moderates quietly turned left.
And Obamacare is just the old example that proves the rule. Since then the GOP hasn't been able to wave the white flag fast enough. This culminated in the massive Omnibus spending bill; which to his shame, Trump signed.
It didn’t have to be this way. To be sure there have been a few executive and legislative victories. Trump has rolled back a massive amount of bureaucracy. And a decent tax reform was passed into law (which did severely cripple Obamacare by ridding us of the individual mandate). But perception is everything and the surrender on spending erased any perception of gains that was out there.
So, the third thing the GOP has going against them is that surrender monkeys don't inspire their guys to get to the polls. With this on top of all the other factors that will influence the next election... expect the worst in 2018.
The one positive aspect of all this is, given the mood of the left, they will over-reach. So, 2020... is a different matter. It may actually insure Trump for a full eight year term. :)