DRAFT: Trump could leave the Supreme Court 8-1 for the conservatives

<p>Kavannah will be fine. Laura Ingraham has known him for 25 years...she was giddy last night. Leonard Leo from Federalist society literally laughed when asked if Kavannah might be a squish. And let's think about the bigger picture...Ginsburg is 85. Breyer will be 80 next month. Sotomayor is 64 and has has Type 1 diabetes. (Average life span for a woman with Type 1 diabetes is 68). Folks, it is conceivable Trump could leave the Supreme Court 8-1 for the conservatives. It's an absolute worst case scenario for liberals.</p> <p>&#160;</p> <p>Given the map and momentum...I would say it's much more likely that Republicans could pick up as many as 5 or 6 seats. Especially now that dem senators in very red states have to make an impossible choice on support for Kavannah.</p> <p>&#160;</p> <p>RCP has 48 safe Republican seats...and 8 toss ups (I believe it will be 9 tossups with Tester). ALL of those toss ups are in red states (except 1- Nevada). Republicans might not win them all...but then again looking race by race they absolutely could. IN, ND, MO, WV, FL, MT would all be pick ups. Very possible.</p> <p>&#160;</p> <p>Lose 1 senator and the nomination is sunk. So he nominates someone who can and will get confirmed. Many people are scoffing at the idea that he is a squish. If they pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate.... the next pick (and there may be 2-3 more picks) he can nominate Barrett or someone similar.&#160;</p>

Comments

opher goodwin Added Jul 11, 2018 - 4:50am
What a farcical system. Only in America.
Ari Silverstein Added Jul 11, 2018 - 9:19am
Unlike liberals, conservatives don’t pass laws which require the Supreme Court to re-write in order for it to pass (Obamacare).  So while a conservative leaning Court will clearly be helpful, Republicans need to pass legislation to really make meaningful change. 
 
As for the coming Kavannah vote, Republicans could lose one Senator and still easily get him nominated, as there are many Democratic Senators that need to cozy up to Trump in order to get re-elected.  Furthermore, if the Dems get 4 or 5 seats in the Senate, you can be sure nobody Trump selects will be confirmed by a Democratic Senate.  That is, nobody but Merrick Garland. 
rycK the JFK Democrat Added Jul 11, 2018 - 9:27am
As usual, the rabid leftists lost power and now pout and bawl as their hopes to circumvent the Legislative Branch fades to dust. How fitting!
 
Democrats [my party for 50 years] needs to put up more people like Maxine Waters to set the polis straight on numerous issues and they should try to get Hillary to run again. 
 
Keep it up Dems, it is working for us.
Leroy Added Jul 11, 2018 - 12:41pm
I have no idea what a squish is in this context.  I even used the urban dictionary.  Nothing seems to fit.  The context seems to suggest he might turn liberal (or moderate) once seated.
 
"Sotomayor is 64 and has has Type 1 diabetes. (Average life span for a woman with Type 1 diabetes is 68)."
 
Got to love the cold calculation...lol.  Supreme Court judges and the Democratic leadership seem to defy the odds, so I wouldn't be too hopeful. 
 
I don't care what political persuasion a justice might have.  I only care about whether or not they strictly follow the Constitution and the laws as written and intended.  In today's vernacular, I suppose that makes one conservative.
 
If Trump wins another term, the Democratic nightmare could become reality.  Just as the states are turning bluer and the Democrats are able to run roughshod over the rest of the population, then to have their agenda stymied by the Supreme Court will be frustrating to them.  Eventually, the millennials will turn conservative and the progressive liberal agenda will be repudiated.  Until then, a Constitution-applying Supreme Court is our best hope.
TexasLynn Added Jul 11, 2018 - 2:31pm
Leroy >> Got to love the cold calculation...lol
 
I've never been one to wish bad health or death on anyone short of a terrorist or mass murderer.  Not with the way karma is always ready to chew on my ass.  Then there's that Christian thing, and all.
 
Leroy >> I don't care what political persuasion a justice might have.  I only care about whether or not they strictly follow the Constitution and the laws as written and intended.
 
Which (as you point out) is the very definition of the conservative political persuasion.
 
Leroy >> If Trump wins another term, the Democratic nightmare could become reality.
 
But never underestimate the ability of the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  It’s happened so often it’s what I expect.
 
Leroy >> Eventually, the millennials will turn conservative and the progressive liberal agenda will be repudiated.
 
We can only hope.  A better scenario (and much less likely) would be blacks deciding to leave the liberal plantation.
 
Leroy >> Until then, a Constitution-applying Supreme Court is our best hope.
 
It damn sure can't hurt.  And it beats the alternative if Hillary Clinton had won the election.
 
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My first post (a year ago) was "A Ginsburg Gamble?" that addressed possibly offering a deal to Ginsburg.  If she retired, replace her with Merrick Garland (Obama's nominee).  I was against in and said... roll the dice.  I'm still against it.
 
I'll bet you one thing.  Trump may have a guy following him around with the nuclear football.  I envision Ginsburg has a lefty following her around with a defibrillator.
Leroy Added Jul 11, 2018 - 4:12pm
"We can only hope.  A better scenario (and much less likely) would be blacks deciding to leave the liberal plantation."
 
How long do you think they would support open borders in the Hispanic population left the plantation?
 
"I'll bet you one thing.  Trump may have a guy following him around with the nuclear football.  I envision Ginsburg has a lefty following her around with a defibrillator."
 
I got a good chuckle out of that one.  Thanks!  I suspect they may have a life support system not far behind and a remote-controlled exoskeleton to animate her in case she passes on to the great beyond and programmed to emulate Maxine Walters.
Leroy Added Jul 11, 2018 - 4:16pm
"We can only hope.  A better scenario (and much less likely) would be blacks deciding to leave the liberal plantation."
 
But then we have Generation Z, with about a third of them unable to even figure out their gender.  We may be screwed.