Conjecture

My Recent Posts

(Much of this is true.)

Our President's bad mood last weekend was easy to read.  As they said in the old gangster movies, The Jig Is Up.  No more cake for you, Donald!

Though Paul Manafort had backed off his earlier plea deal by lying to Mueller and sharing information about the investigation with the White House (good!), Michael Cohen sprang a bigger leak in the Drumpfseeflotte by pleading guilty to lying to Congress about ongoing talks with Russia into 2016.  Very bad.

Trump had a dream--it was to be his crowning achievement.  He wanted to make it happen in Moscow, the biggest hotel of all time.  Running for President (not winning) was a strategy to build his brand up towards that. And, while he was running, he could raise holy Hell in the meantime with the media and those who had failed to respect him.

In 2015 and early 2016 the dealings with the Russians were proceeding, but Trump kept it at arms-length while his campaign was still a going concern.  The Republican candidates ended up falling like bowling pins, though. Worse, people liked what he had to say on these national issues, simple expression of his uninformed instincts,  by which his gut had always guided him.  It then became apparent that the nomination was his (though winning the general election was, and would always remain, unlikely).

No problem.  The deal was put on hold until after the election.  The day chosen was the same day Russia entered the campaign more aggressively on Trump's behalf through their agents Assange (and Snowden?).  Though the Trumps wanted the leaks, the timing was strange:  It could have been a trick from either side;  perhaps it was the subject of their private meeting in Helsinki, when Trump explained the necessity while not retracting his offer of the future penthouse.

Once again, though, fate intervened, and through a combination of errors and accidents, he won a smashing victory in the Electoral College despite never catching his opponent in popular opinion.  WTF?

Things started to get very complicated quickly.  First Mike Flynn overstepped and had to be sacrificed....and so on.  Now Donald realizes that dream is never going to happen--this Presidency thing has gotten in the way, permanently.

Negotiated Withdrawal 
Donald Trump  claims to be the expert negotiator.  I think it's time to put this to the real test. The idea is very simple, though it will take some time to work out important details--so it's critical to begin soon.

Trump doesn't run in 2020, agreeing to be a one-term President No more indictments (from the date of the agreement) of White House personnel until after the completion of his term.

No tricks. Trump would agree not to seek or allow the nomination for President of the Republican party nor encourage nor allow his candidacy by any other entity.   He, his children, and certain named White House staff would remain immune from any criminal indictments through US courts until Jan., 2021. This agreement would preclude indictment (Federal or state courts), but would not  prejudice investigation, or even prosecution, subsequent to his administration for acts either before Election Day, 2016 or in his continuing role as a private citizen.  Congressional leaders would forswear impeachment for a set of past subjects

The benefits of such an agreement to all concerned can be described.  Trump leaves office with his head high, and his family intact.  (Whether they stick around afterwards to face the music or run for it, I don't know.)  The election can proceed normally; Congress can avoid having to put everybody through the pain of impeachment and even some of the endless subpoenas and fights over executive privilege..  The Presidency can avoid the contamination and condemnation that the Ford pardon of Nixon caused.  The voting public can focus on what comes next after this aberrant episode. The Special Prosecutor would continue its work, developing cases, but on a reduced budget, until the end of the term; that would reduce lasting damage to the Department of Justice, the FBI, etc.

The terms of the proposed agreement would  take some time to arrange, during which Mueller's investigation and prosecutions will continue, delivering hammer blows until Trump finally faces reality and accepts the need to talk (I would imagine he would turn the idea down flat the first couple times it would be suggested.)  

There are key details that must be worked out:   the specifics of the immunity for family members and Donald  (until January, 2021); and disposition of the money Trump has already raised for his 2020 campaign. (Reported to be $100 milion; as far as I'm concerned, he can keep it.)  There are a number of parties that need to agree on this, besides Trump, and he would need to make a Shermanesque statement of disavowing a run for 2020.   That would be the hardest part; he will need to be persuaded it's his best option.

Maybe then he could build his hotel in Moscow.

Comments

Jim Stoner Added Dec 10, 2018 - 12:35am
In May, I blogged this
 

End of Trumpism--the Headline

(as I would rank order on likelihood) 

1. Trump Defeated!  ( in the 2020 Election)
2. Trump Quits! (Before 2020)
3. Trump Dies!  (anytime OK)
4. Trump Announces He Will Not Run Again (most likely in early 2020, when the recession hits)
5. Trump Wins Re-Election, Civilization Crashes, Drumpfsterfire Blazes until Snuffed in Resulting Chaos... (I'd guess late 2022)
6. Trump Is Impeached and Convicted! (could even be in second term)
7. That 25th Amendment Coup-because-Trump-is-Crazy Thing! (Since it didn't already happen...)

This (Negotiated Withdrawal) is a variation on #4, call it #4A.  I don't think it's more probable than 1-3, but worth considering, for everyone's sake. 
It's also an intentional call-out of Nixon and his Secret Vietnam Strategy.   We're now getting into Nixon territory, though Trump is more like Spiro Agnew. 
Jeffry Gilbert Added Dec 10, 2018 - 5:09am
Wow man! Far out. Look man, can I get whatever you're smoking? 
opher goodwin Added Dec 10, 2018 - 7:29am
Jim - all very plausible. I don't think Trump ever considered actually winning. It was all a big publicity campaign for his business ventures - particularly the Russian ones. It kind of backfired when he won.
Now there are all kinds of investigations - money laundering, tax evasion, conspiracy and various perjuries. He's in a bit of a cesspit!
We'll see where this all heads. No doubt they will look for various ways out of the mess!
I just think they should lock him up! Criminals should all be prosecuted!
Leroy Added Dec 10, 2018 - 8:42am
All the bad news against Trump in more bark than bite.  He's not only a pathological liar but he is also a very intelligent one.  Most are.  They are hard to pin down.  I know of one who currently has a dozen or more lawsuits filed against him or filed against someone else.  I can't imagine living like that.  The man is brilliant.  He knows more about the law than any lawyer I have encountered.  He's almost impossible to defeat in a court of law.  I compared him to Trump well before Trump was elected.  Don't count Trump out.
Johnny Fever Added Dec 10, 2018 - 8:56am
Allow me to paraphrase, please correct me where I’m wrong:  While running for president in what everyone considered a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, Trump had plans to build a hotel in Russia.  When it became clear that he had more than a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, he quit trying to build a hotel in Russia and focus on his campaign for president.
 
His behavior seems logical and entirely legal to me.  However, for a Trump hater like yourself, his behavior is evidence of _______?
TreeParty Added Dec 10, 2018 - 9:37am
Johnny F.,
As President of the United States, Trump swore an oath, promising to defend the Constitution. He thereupon immediately began subordinating the interests of this country to curry favor with Russians and other bad actors. And that seems logical and legal to you?!
Dishonest? Check. Even his supporters acknowledge that he is, in Leroy's words, a pathological liar. 
Hypocritical? Check. Lock him up! Lock him up!
Legal? No check. Likely charges, based on what we know, are 1) violations of emolument clauses (already charged in federal court!), 2) violations of election laws, 3) perjury, 4) conspiracy to defraud, etc.
Excuse me; I'm going to go get the popcorn....
Dino Manalis Added Dec 10, 2018 - 9:38am
 It's all about lies and tax evasion, while Trump is trying to run the country with a bunch of radicals attacking him!
Jim Stoner Added Dec 10, 2018 - 10:06am
The way things are going, it's going to be an ugly two years for everyone.  All these little nitpicky laws that Trump & Co. have ignored in pursuing their schemes.  All these little Congressional committees that ask annoying questions.  The prosecutors getting closer and closer.  No time to work on making America great (again).   As for the rest of us, we're stuck with him until 2021, anyway (conviction  after impeachment is extremely unlikely to happen); so let's figure out how we can move on. 
 
Johnny F.  Logical, yes; legal, no.  There are two things--the Russia business stuff, and the Russian assistance to Trump's campaign.  Different people handled the two things, but they both funneled up to Trump (we know now). The smoking gun will be the connection between the two; it would get him impeached but not convicted, in my view. 
 
Jeffry G. Yes, it's good; no, you can't have any. 
Thomas Sutrina Added Dec 10, 2018 - 10:19am
Jim Stoner, really (Much of this is true.) I find myself defending Trump from obscured allegations.
 
Remember that the modern liberal/democratic socialist media bought and paid for 'candidate Trump' to be the GOP presidential nominee. They paid a premium price that was more then all the other candidates from any and all parties combined. So the DNC, Media, and Hillary's campaign all conspired, but blew it, as you say, " fate intervened, and through a combination of errors and accidents, he won a smashing victory in the Electoral College despite never catching his opponent in popular opinion. WTF?" Accept the credit.
 
Jim S., what is the jig???
 
Paul Manafort is convicted of crimes not related to Trump and long before he got involved in Trumps campaign. He is not convicted of anything related to Trump. No Jig to end here.
 
Trump has signed what contract to build or have built a hotel in Russia. Please provide the evidence of a deal signed by him. What you have is a discussion that didn't end up in any deal. Jim Stone your the one dreaming.  No Jig here!!!!
 
Deal put on hold till after the election again where is the beef??? Where is his signature on any deal? Jim noting has been signed. And how do you attach Snowden to this? You must be having nightmares. No Jig here!!!
 
General Mike Flynn is broke the only crime he committed was to run out of money. Lying to the FBI is easy when the FBI can choose what to believe or not. That goes for every person the Mueller witch hunt has charged with lying. No Jig here!!!!
 
Now we do agree that Trump is not an expert negotiator. I believe that no one is an expert negotiator including Trump because he is dealing with people as good as he is.  Finally a little bit of a shake, not a jig.
 
You have me here I can not say Trump will run in 2020, no one can today, and I think that includes Trump. Jim I am going to ignore your vision into the future because it is no better then all the visions of the world presented in world fairs. Not one is above 10% in their predictions.
 
We do know that the swamp of both Democrats and Republican leadership in Congress have never and will never support anything that Trump campaigned on except maybe lower unemployment.
 
Mueller is not investigating a Crime which is what the charter of the justice department exist for. Mueller is looking for a crime to attach to Trump and dirt to give to the now Democratic House to impeach Trump. That is to indite him for a trial that will never happen in the Senate. As with Clinton it is only an embarrassment but has no teeth to remove him from office without the Senate.  No Jig here!!!
 
 
 
 
Jim Stoner Added Dec 10, 2018 - 10:49am
Thomas,  Nice little dance, you're getting "jiggy with it".  
I said up front this was conjecture ('an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information'). 
 
Let's back up a little.  Mueller's assignment was to assess any criminal actions relating to the stolen emails, and to follow that through to the end.   Where it's taken us so far seems to be a strong possibility that there is an intersection between the Russian business deals and Russia releasing the DNC emails through Wiki-Leaks and other actions to help Trump win, with a good possibility of quid pro quo and evidence Trump was fully aware of both.   (To be clear, the intersection is Trump and it's Putin)
 
Oh, Trump is definitely running in 2020, unless something changes that.  As I said, he has $100 million raised--for himself--already.  The only thing that will change that will be a deal made out of a desire for self-preservation (or possibly preservation of his family from prosecution, it's worth a try). 
 
Manafort's trials are not done, now; there's a whole set of new charges coming.  All Mike Flynn did was lie to investigators?  That's his defense? 
 
As for Snowden, I'll admit that I made that up to see whom it would trigger; I know he has a lot of sympathizers.  I think he's now a Russian agent, though (he was already a leaker), suggesting he could have been involved.   Congratulations. 
 
But wait--what was that paranoid fantasy about the DNC paying to make Trump the nominee?  Conjecture a little? 
Thomas Sutrina Added Dec 10, 2018 - 12:15pm
If I recall it is your jig not mine.  I asked you where YOUR JIG IS???    Nice try but you failed, <<Thomas,  Nice little dance, you're getting "jiggy with it".  
I said up front this was conjecture ('an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information'). >>
Jim Stoner Added Dec 10, 2018 - 12:34pm
It's Trump's jig (having his cake--national political power--and eating it, too--making those big deals for himself). 
And it's over; he will have to choose, and I would guess that, having been President for awhile, he would prefer to just do deals with Russia and other dictators.   This "running things" gig is just no fun, too hard, too many rules to follow (see "Miller's Crossing"). 
George N Romey Added Dec 10, 2018 - 12:45pm
One thing about Trump is that he kills his opposition.  He always has since the bankers back in the 1990s. People discount this man, think he a fool and yet live to regret it.  HRC being the prime clown of the day.
 
Moreover, he knows the dirt.  Don't ever think he won't expose others if he feels threatened.  One thing I have to give Donald Trump he wears his dirt on his sleeve for the entire world to see.  He's the only person every admitted that he buys politicians like pieces of candy.
Thomas Sutrina Added Dec 10, 2018 - 1:46pm
No John Stoner,  Trump is not jigging as I said so your the author so that leave you as the jigger.  For example it is not uncommon to have a person describe an accident saying "the tree ran into my car."    Trump is jigging not because he is but because YOUR ARE.
Jeff Michka Added Dec 10, 2018 - 6:36pm
Geezus, even you rightists can't grasp Trump is just a typical real estate developer, with typical real estate developer desires and tactics.  And if you got a pic of FDR having oral sex with Trump, we'd never hear from you again, Sutrino, you'd be too busy with that pic and empty hand motioning up and down.  And Trump cries like Mogg Turd on WB or Twitter, I'm sure.  Nobody cares about your tears, Mogg the Turd
Flying Junior Added Dec 11, 2018 - 2:36am
Romey,
 
You mean that he literally murders people?

Flying Junior Added Dec 11, 2018 - 2:49am
It's a gas, isn't it Jim, watching all of the dumb trumpies squirm?  All of the shit that the lying POS has been denying is basically a Hoover Dam waiting to be opened.  Ease open the spillways, baby.  Obviously Mueller has nothing and can just pound sand!  lolz  fucking dummies
 
It would be nice if enough republican men could reach down and feel around for their balls and join with their women and every democrat in a bicameral censure of this disgusting politician from hell.  I would love to see it announced by the Turtle himself.  Paul Ryan could deliver the political eulogy.  Trump forever disgraced and shunned from any position of power in the federal government.
 
It could happen.  I don't see why not.
 
Of course the real power is the vote.  Democrats would never dream of embarrassing themselves by subverting the power of impeachment the way the dickly republicans did.  Certainly not over Stormy Daniels and the Mario Kart Toad.  Hypocrites.
 
Trump will die a natural death.  Just about everybody hates that fucking demon.



Jim Stoner Added Dec 11, 2018 - 3:11am
FJ - Actuallly, I am very uneasy about the squirming and the Republican cowardice--it's unnerving.   I just saw the Vice news documentary on the 2008 crisis:  what if the feces ventilator kicks in during the next couple of years (and I would not bet against it)?
I agree with you, censure is what is most likely to happen.  The House will pass it easily.  It will be a "difficult vote" for Republican Senators, but I would think a few will cross over (Mitt Romney would be one, Lisa Murkowski another I think, though the 'Profiles in Courage' number is diminished.  Susan Collins will be squirming for sure. )  Don't expect any courage from Yertle, though, much as he despises Trump.  Retaining the majority is everything to him (after getting re-elected in 2020, of course), and confronting Trump is not going to sit well with the T Party constituency in the caucus or in Kentucky. 
 
What happened, Thomas?--the dialogue was going so well.  Did I upset you?  That last comment seems somewhat unhinged--maybe the "jigger" was yours? 
 
Jeff M.  Are you trying to provoke Mogg Tsur?  Please, --I don't want to get in the crossfire of the deletion wars.  He hasn't shown up in this thread yet, so there's no need for a pre-emptive strike. 
Flying Junior Added Dec 11, 2018 - 3:49am
It's strange to think of Romney as an incoming senator.  I have made so much fun of that guy for the last six years.  I dream about having an unlimited supply of money for improving my house.  The first thing that I would do is install six to eight inch drains and big pipes on every plumbing fixture.  You would open the bathtub drain and all of the water would drain out in five seconds!
 
That fucking son-of-a-bitch bought one of the old-time La Jolla beach houses with two stories.  I played my Farfisa with my mates in the same house with a crowd of partiers on the beach, circa 1975.  Back to Butt Chimney...   His children and he could walk out directly onto one of the nicest beaches in California through a gate.  His wife enjoyed hanging out on the second story balcony reading.  The La Jolla conservatives were so excited about the prospect of his establishing a Western White House in that very house, they did a little feature on him.
 
Does anyone remember what he wanted to do with that property?  La Jolla coastal communities have a thirty-foot height limit.  Mitt Romney wanted to build the biggest three-story box that would fit into the parcel.  Exactly thirty feet tall with only minimal space for sideyard access or any garden.  The maximum damage and footprint allowable by law.  Isn't that basically what republicans are all about?  But he also was ready to pay for a high-tech Tokyo-style revolving door car garage that would deliver the selected vehicle right out onto the cul-de-sac.  Underground of course, perhaps even taller than the house itself.  Maybe space for twenty-four to thirty vehicles?
 
A lot of us were scared that he would do it even if he lost to Obama.  I really opposed the idea because I knew very well that heavy equipment and earth movers that would be brought in directly on the beach for such a project.  It also would have closed down a huge swath of neighborhood and beach for as many as two years.
 
In 2012 I worked in the general area and also used to walk and ride my bike all of the time in that neighborhood as a teenager.  It's very close to Windansea Surfing Beach.  It's called the Barber Tract after the famous architect of so many homes there, George Barber.
 
I was actually working at the fabulous White Sands of La Jolla.  Don't ask me how.  But I used to ride my bike around at lunch time only to see Sea Lane itself blocked off to public access, being casually guarded by a woman in a SUV.
 
So one of my friends told me that he actually saw Mitt walking around the community surrounded by several SS guys ahead and behind him.  His shoelace became untied.  My buddy joked that probably three guys immediately ran up and offered to tie his shoelace for him.  The last thing we were laughing about was being found dead in a lobster trap off of the coast of La Jolla.  That guy was fucking funny.  I can't remember the setup.









George N Romey Added Dec 11, 2018 - 8:24am
Romney, please. I'll take Trump any day over Romney.  Trump for all his faults has never hidden the fact that he's an over the top, loud abrasive super rich dude.  Romney on the other hand runs around with this holier than thou attitude.  That 47% remark he made is the true Romney.  Even Trump would probably not say such a thing, even off camera.  
Thomas Sutrina Added Dec 11, 2018 - 1:24pm
Jeff boy the is obscured << if you got a pic of FDR having oral sex with Trump, we'd never hear from you again, Sutrino,>>  Quite an vivid imagination.  Need to get into writing big bug from radiation  horror movies.
John Minehan Added Dec 11, 2018 - 3:43pm
"He knows more about the law than any lawyer I have encountered.  He's almost impossible to defeat in a court of law."
 
You might want to talk to a couple of lawyers in NYC about that one . . . .
Ken Added Dec 12, 2018 - 2:24am
I think I lost 5 IQ points wading through this article....Fortunately, I am still about triple of what you contend, stoner...
Jim Stoner Added Dec 12, 2018 - 12:42pm
Sorry, Ken.  I am very impressed with your IQ of 395 (after reading this). 
Flying Junior Added Dec 13, 2018 - 5:33am


You know, I heard about our friend, Michael Cohen, getting three years and I felt a little bit bad.  It made me think of Rod Blagojevich.  But that guy got twelve years.  Cohen was actually guilty of bank fraud and tax evasion.  Small time check forgers can get three years. 
 
Still I feel bad for the guy.  Because if he had never taken up with that devil Trump, he would still be a free man today.
 
I'm sure that Mueller decided to convict Cohen of a crime of which it was specifically understood that he committed that crime at the behest of the POTUS.
 
But will Cohen the faithful and competent defender of all things Trump get his pardon that he so desperately needs?  Probably not.  Trump has all but literally thrown him under a bus, labelling him a traitor who deserves a stiff sentence.  His own go-to guy.
 
Trump disgusts me on so many levels and so many more almost every day.  What a piece of shit.






Flying Junior Added Dec 14, 2018 - 4:59am
Cohen is going to be interviewed by George Stephanapolous on Good Morning America this morning.  I wonder what he will have to say now that his client has disowned him.