A Few Thoughts on Politics

My Recent Posts

Amy Klobuchar


Senator Klobuchar (D. Minn.) appears to have made enemies in being The Senator Next Door.


The attacks appear to be the kind of attacks often made against powerful women.


On the other hand, not being able to treat . . .  at least some . . .  of the people who work for you well is often a bad sign. 


George Marshall, for example, was famously hard on senior officers who worked for him, having both very high standards and being uncommonly reserved and detached.  However, Marshall was also known for the courtesy, empathy and professionalism he demonstrated in dealing with NCOs and enlisted Soldiers.  Further, many people who are known to be demanding towards their staff (like GOA George Marshall or GEN [R] Wes Clark) are also known to be even harder on themselves.


If Senator Klobuchar is a "George Marshall-type," then this criticism is grossly misplaced.  On the other hand, if she has no greater vision than "garner praise and avoid blame," she will always be disappointed in her staff who will never be able to truly anticipate her requirements and she is unlikely to do well in this cursus honorum.


Elizabeth Warren 


Despite her name recognition, Sen. Elizabeth Warren's (D. MA) presidential aspiration are unlikely to survive the controversy about her Cherokee roots (or the lack thereof).  This is especially true after the Texas Bar application surfaced.


In the wake of the financial crisis, Warren, a professor at Harvard Law School, specializing in Bankruptcy Law, got a great deal of media attention for her critiques of the finance industry.  She advocated for the creation of a   Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ("CFPB") and increased regulations.


However, in practice, these things have shown little utility even though she rode them to a Senate seat.  I think she will leave the race early.


Cory Booker


A Yale Law Graduate, former major college football star, Rhodes Scholar, former effective (and, in one instance, heroic) big city mayor and US Senator, Sen. Booker (D.NJ) has to be seen as a formidable contender in 2020.


His performance in the Kavanagh Hearings, however, has probably damaged his carefully burnished credentials as a business-friendly moderate. 


This could become a major setback this year.


The Democratic Field is running left.  However, Trump's brand of Right Wing Populism does not please all Republicans and seems to have a limited appeal to independents.  If Booker were able to run towards the center he might find a winning coalition . . . or at least . . . provide a Vice Presidential balance for a more liberal Presidential candidate.


Finally, while he may or not be Spartacus, his dating Rosario Dawson at least implies he has seen Alexander


Tulsi Gabbard


Rep. Gabbard (D. HI, 2d District) is also an announced candidate for the Democratic Nomination for President in 2020. 


No sitting US Representative has ever been elected President.  (Lincoln had last been in office as a Congressman when elected President in 1860, but had become a nationally known railroad lawyer since leaving Congress and had lost a Senatorial race against Stephen Douglas that earned national attention two years before his Presidential run.  President Garfield was in Congress but already had been selected to be a US Senator prior to his election as President.)


Rep. Gabbard is also a Field Grade Military Intelligence Officer in the US Army Reserve and has strong, well reasoned and innovative positions on a lot of issues.  It may be that Rep. Gabbard is running to gain greater exposure for her ideas and to build support for a run for state-wide office in Hawaii or to be selected to a cabinet post like State or Defense, for which she seems a good but unexpected choice.


Kamala Harris


My gut instinct is that Sen. Harris (D. CA) has a profound lead in the "Gravitas" and "Likability" races that may already be insurmountable.


As a former big city District Attorney (dealing with crime) and a former large-state Attorney General (dealing with civil law and public policy in our most populous state), Sen. Harris has the grace that comes from success under fire.


As a person, with her demeanor, she does not seem to trigger a  Backpfeifengesicht response (unlike notable politicians like Ted Cruz, who I supported, and HRC in the 2016 cycle).


Which is not to say that the electorate (or even all Democrats) uncritically support her.


Sen. Harris is strongly pro-choice.  She is an outspoken supporter of Medicare For All.  In the 1990s, she had a relationship with Willie Brown, a powerful California Democrat who was still married to someone else and decades her senior.  (In essence, it is the plot to James Cagney's 1959 film, Never Steal Anything Small.)   As a DA and an AG she made enemies among civil libertarians across the political spectrum, 


However, all of these issues are rational issues and not visceral, emotional reactions.  Sen. Harris does not inspire the opprobrium that someone like HRC or Trump or Sen. Cruz or Sen. Warren does.


I think, at minimum, that will be a formidable advantage in securing the nomination.


Donald Trump


I suspect Donald Trump can't be re-elected based on the results in the 2018 Mid-term elections. 


Trump is unlikely to win in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin based on 2018 results in these states.  Further, although the GOP held on to or picked up important seats in Florida, Texas and Georgia, the trend seems against them in those states in 2020.  Especially notable was Texas,  where Beto O'Rourke's comment that Texas is less a Red State than a Purple State with voter registration issues seemed to be born out.


If the Democrats are smart, they will prevent O'Rourke from running for President in 2020 and will keep him organizing in Texas.


Mitt Romney and John Kasich


Given Trump's likely 2020 weakness and given the electoral disadvantage the GOP operates under in that (and subsequent) years it would make sense to primary Trump, if only to create a new paradigm for that party.


While neither Romney nor Kasich are likely to take the nomination from Trump, at least they can begin to create a Republicanism that is free from Trump's nativist tendencies.


Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez


Watching the State of the Union, it occurred to me that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez (D. NY-14th District) is a figure not unlike a Freshman US Representative of 208 years ago named Henry Clay.


Like Clay, Ocasio-Cortez is a member of groups who have not had great power before, in her case, as a Latina and a young woman, in Clay's case, as a Westerner whose connections with the tidewater aristocracy were somewhat attenuated (Clay was trained as a lawyer by George Wythe, the same lawyer who had earlier trained Jefferson and Madison when they were apprentices, but his people came from the Western part of Virginia and relocated to Kentucky.)


Both Clay and Ocasio-Cortez had father's who were self-made men (Clay's father was a farmer, Ocasio-Cortez's father an architect) whose early death's caused financial hardships for their families.


Both Clay (with his American System) and Ocasio-Castro (with the Green New Deal) are identified with ambitious programs that face skepticism from the powers that be, President Madison for Clay and Speaker Pelosi for Rep Ocasio-Castro.  While people today might find Rep. Ocasio-Cortez's influence to be overblown, it is worth remembering that Henry Clay was the first (and last) freshman US Representative selected as Speaker of the House.  


Looking ahead 40 years or so, you have to wonder what time and fortune will bring AOC.  Like Clay, will she rise to the Senate and the Cabinet, but be denied the Presidency?  Will her ideas become as accepted as Clay's American System is today?  Will she deeply influence a protégé who will become an American legend, as Clay's admirer Lincoln became?          


History, in the end, is just the ongoing record of other people's triumphs and tragedies.




Bill H. Added Feb 9, 2019 - 4:45pm
For the Republican's, I believe Kasich is their best bet. Trump's base won't like him because he is willing to negotiate, actually shows compassion, appears quite intelligent, and would most likely be a great uniter.
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 5:06pm
Kasich didn't do badly in '16, finishing just in back of Trump and Cruz/Fiorina.  I think there is a market for anyone but Trump among some in the GOP and there is a real need for a non-Trumpian point of view.
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 5:30pm
"Booker is a militant black extremist hiding in the Democrat woodpile and like Sanders, if allowed to take the Oval Office will surely show his true stripes at the expense of the Nation. This is true of Warren the indian, Harris the champion of justice, and Booker the credentialled mainstream politician. There are similar writedowns of the rest of the Democrat field. keyword: Democrat"
Yeah, Stanford, Yale Law and Oxford really incline someone toward being a "militant black (sic) extremist" instead of being a bit "boughie" (to blatantly culturally appropriate that term).
I have no idea what it is like to be a high achieving Black Man, who has risen to the heights of our society on merit, as Sen. Booker has. 
To again, blatantly culturally appropriate, there is probably a fair amount of "code switching" involved; a bit of what Eliot called "to prepare a face to meet the faces that you meet."
I have to guess there may be times when you wonder where you really belong.  That might be why Newark and still living in a rough part of Newark might mean something to him, both in terms of legitimacy and identity.
In some ways, this is probably an existential issue in addition to how he makes his way in the world.
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 5:34pm
"Finally, pardon me if I scoff at your raising of centuries old comparisons to historical political figures v. 21st Century candidates."
Finally, excuse me if I scoff at the idea that you have any idea what I was writing about.
Jim Stoner Added Feb 9, 2019 - 6:18pm
I for one liked the Henry Clay riff. 
I read a bit more about the Klobuchar managerial reputation.  As you suggest, she sets a high bar through her own example and can be tough when the quality of work doesn't meet her standards.  Sounds a bit old school.
Left-wing of the party is trendy right now, but i would say the smart money is focusing on the center-left within it  (Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown, Beto) .  Some separation from the DLC line is necessary, but being too extreme will turn off some whose support will be needed (to get a big win).  Democrats need both turnout and breadth in order to get the White House and defeat the Evil Turtle. 
Speaking of Kentucky (if it gets too close, McTurtle will have to focus on his own race over positioning for his colleagues' re-elections): 
Of course, after Clay's career there would be a President who was born in Kentucky-- know who? 
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 6:20pm
Lincoln comes to mind, has there been anyone else?
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 6:23pm
I note the bad press Klobucher is getting, so I wonder if someone wants to keep the moderates down.. 
Jim Stoner Added Feb 9, 2019 - 7:00pm
Yeah, Lincoln. 
Jim Stoner Added Feb 9, 2019 - 7:02pm
You betcha.  Same as the bad-mouthing of Beto.  With Brown it's about not giving up the Ohio Senate seat for which he just got re-elected.   A lot of people jumping to early conclusions. 
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 7:16pm
Beto O'Rourke appears to be on to something in Texas.
However, is that realization about how Texas is (as opposed to how it is perceived) more important than any personal political aspirations he may have, at least at this point? 
Jeff Michka Added Feb 9, 2019 - 7:37pm
Nice write up, John.  And you've drawn the ire of Mogg the Turd for daring to say anything positive about women running for office.  Moggy thinks only old white guys in sheets or shoe polish deserve public office, according to Moggy.  I thought John's use of historical figures like Henry Clay were good, just disliking women is all you offered, Moggy.  You are just disagreeing with John, Moggy, lil lap doggy, not "rebutting."  You just wanted to flash your rightist credentials at John and show others what a dedicated rightist pig you really are and like them, hate women.  How...special.  And how can anyone not just give Orangy another term because 'he loves the people?'"  You live in Roger Stone's basement, Moggy?
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 7:48pm
"Minehan, unless you want to defend what you wrote it won't do to just say your readers don't understand you. You are writing in anticipation of who will get the Democrat nomination in 2020, you are writing to cast doubt that the incumbent will get the nomination of the GOP and in any event win. You dredge up long dead politicians as though they will be the factor or a factor in the voter's choice is what I am rebutting."
"Minehan, unless you want to defend what you wrote it won't do to just say your readers don't understand you."
No, I said you didn't understand.
As for what I wrote, it's called  "predictive analysis."  I may or may not be right.  As Wellington said, "All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavour to find out what you don't know by what you do; that's what I called 'guessing what was at the other side of the hill.'" 
George N Romey Added Feb 9, 2019 - 7:48pm
It's going to be who gets the base out in swing states.  Young people and minorities typically don't come out well in elections.  Also who will be able to handle Trump because he will be on the attack.  I wouldn't count Trump out.  Booker out of all of them I think is the most likely to win. However, he was the mayor of Newark, NJ.  It was a shithole when he became mayor and a shithole when he left.  Trump will take that record and tear it to shreds.
I still see Biden as an outside chance to run.  Finally, we're still so far off it's all for now just wild speculation.
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 7:53pm
Newark obviously means something to Booker; he still lives there.
Street Fight is a big part of his political legend.  It has always reminded me of  Edwin O'Conner's The Last Hurrah.
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 8:02pm
"If Beto O'Rourke is on to something we won't know it from what you write, Minehan. And to ask the summary question without discussing your take on O'Rourke just leave me saying, why bother?"
Odd syntax.  I wonder if his first language is one of the Slavic ones?
Jeff Michka Added Feb 9, 2019 - 8:22pm
I'd not considered the possibility of Moggy being a Russian asset.  As to syntax, "Emmergency, Emmergency, get off unto the street!"  Naw, even the Russians wouldn't use Moggy.  The Russians have more taste than Ryan Messano.
Bill H. Added Feb 9, 2019 - 10:05pm
George - So are we going to tolerate more of Trump's attacks, insults, and slander during the upcoming elections and allow that to be what every candidate other than himself will have to endure?
I would just love to see one of the candidates during a debate with Trump just walk over to his fat ass and bury their fist into his ugly red face.
I can't say give him a fat lip, because he already has one! 
John Minehan Added Feb 9, 2019 - 11:07pm
"I would just love to see one of the candidates during a debate with Trump just walk over to his fat ass and bury their fist into his ugly red face.
I can't say give him a fat lip, because he already has one!"
Which might create issues with the Secret Service . . . . 
Bill H. Added Feb 10, 2019 - 1:29am
I imagine that would be the case!
Can you imagine Trump trying to contend with all of the female Democrat candidates he will face off to? I suspect there will be loads of insults and new sexist "nicknames" being thrown at them constantly, as he did with Carly Fiorina during the campaign. I don't think he can handle dealing with any women that will run against him. I suggest he will be even more off-the-wall during the upcoming election than he was during the last one.
Mark Hunter Added Feb 10, 2019 - 4:24am
Kamala Harris is who I predicted will win the 2020 election. But then, for 2016 I predicted a HRC win, so what do I know?
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 6:49am
I have the same impression on Sen. Harris.  It is pure gut instinct.
People seem to have substantive reasons for opposing her; it isn't a visceral thing like people report with Ted Cruz (whom I supported in 2016).
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 7:00am
I actually thought he made a point about Carly Fiorina.
I heard her on the radio before I saw footage of her campaigning and thought she could be formidable.
However, then I saw the footage and noticed that Mrs. Fiorina had a strong, confident voice, very assertive body language . . . and had facial expressions that seemed very . . . sour, that did not go with the rest of her presentation, almost like she was visibly grimacing.
I thought that was what Trump was trying to get across in that comment  about her face.  (Mrs. Fiorina, like most people who rise to be CEOs of major companies, is, obviously, very presentable and attractive.)
Jeff Jackson Added Feb 10, 2019 - 8:17am
A large part of OBama's success was the internet. In present times, the internet is essential, especially for reaching those folks who no longer read newspapers, which is a lot of people. Facebook is going to play an even more important role in the 2020 presidential campaign.
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 8:25am
"Facebook is going to play an even more important role in the 2020 presidential campaign."
Given the issues in '16 and the "Fake News" meme, not necessarily an untrammeled good . . . . 

Dino Manalis Added Feb 10, 2019 - 8:39am
 Everyone wants to be president, but it'll be difficult to convince voters.
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 8:50am
"Everyone wants to be president, but it'll be difficult to convince voters."
I remember thinking back in '08, given that Obama and McCain were both clearly decent guys, and how manifestly unpromising the national outlook seemed, why anyone would want the job. 
Koshersalaami Added Feb 10, 2019 - 10:21am
Mogg’s assessment of Booker comes ultimately down to one word: woodpile. You don’t need to read past that. 
I don’t think Booker wins by running center, I think he wins by running Left. Trump didn’t get more votes that Romney in 2012, he won because Hillary got fewer votes than Obama. Hillary didn’t need the center, she needed the base. If she’d tacked Left after beating Bernie - particularly with the blatant help of the DNC - instead of Right, she’d be President. If she’d chosen Warren instead of Kaine, that would have been it. That being said, I think the Texas bar revelation will probably eliminate a previously dominant Warren which is a pity. Her focus is in the right place. The polarization of wealth is on its way to killing the America we have known. 
I’ve spent years online doing what you’re doing now: Being reasonable and quietly analytical in the face of vitriol and the patently ridiculous, to the point where friends criticized me for my patience. However, at this point I am beginning to think that WriterBeat could ultimately lead me to believe that the most reasonable approach here is Jeff Michka’s.
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 10:43am
Jeff Michka manages to combine logic with invective . . . which may be a good way to go in some environments.
Given his background, which includes Stanford, Yale Law and Oxford, I think the center is one logical and legitimate place for Sen. Booker. 
His experiences with running and losing and, eventually, winning and governing in Newark also means the left is another logical and legitimate place for him.  Like many people, he "contains multitudes" (as Walt Whitman said).
However, the Center is less crowded than the Left this year.  Additionally, there are unhappy Republicans and Independents who are an x factor in the equation.   
Leroy Added Feb 10, 2019 - 10:44am
Interesting analysis, John.  I don't see Clinton in the list.  The nomination is hers for the taking, should she decide to run.  Can she win?  Who knows.  The Democrats don't want to put up a potential three-time loser, but she has a large following and may have the best chance to win.  She can blow away all announced Democratic candidates.
Klobuchar has never made an impression on me.  She does have one of the highest staff turnover, if not the highest.  The requests she makes of her staff gives me the impression that she is an egotistical maniac.  She will have to shake that image to win.  With Trump out there, it will be hard to do.
Elizabeth Warren isn't particularly likable.  To boot, she is a policy nerd.  She has already shown with the DNA debacle that Trump is able to get under her skin.  Her troubles continue to mount.  She will be among the first to drop out.  
Trump will never allow Booker to live down his Spartacus moment when he released "classified" documents after they had been cleared.  Then, he turned around and released classified documents.  If he weren't of a darker complexion, he would have at least been censured.  He is an object of ridicule.  He has no chance this time around, but it may help with future attempts.
Gabbard is an interesting candidate.  She hasn't made an impression.  I agree with your analysis.
It has been said that no former prosecutor will ever win the presidency after the Willie Horton debacle.  Plea deals are part of a prosecutor's job.  Harris has likely made several plea deals where the criminal went free and committed a major crime.  Trump doesn't have to look far.  The second strike is that she is from California.  A conservative from California might work, but not a liberal.
AOC is too young for 2020.  End of story. 
Biden has too much baggage.
Americans are suffering from Trump fatigue.  It took Bush eight years to achieve that level of fatigue.  Trump did it in two years.  He is vunerable.   Kasich is the only Republican who has a chance.  For reasons I can't fathom, he has appeal to women.  
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 10:54am
As for HRC, even if she had tacked Left, I'm not sure the Left part of the Democratic Base would have come out for her.  Since you are talking largely young people, sometimes it works (Obama in '08) and sometimes it doesn't (McGovern in '72 or Howard Dean in the '04 Primaries).
Friends of mine who are active in Virginia Democratic politics tell me Kaine is a fine man . . . who radically changed his presentation (generally a caring but also notably wonky and informal persona) to fit HRC's needs in a VP Candidate (e.g., an attack dog). 
"You're perfect . . . now change radically" generally fails in any context in which it is attempted.
I think HRC should have picked Julian Castro, who had practical leadership experience she lacked as a big city mayor and head of HUD.  
Koshersalaami Added Feb 10, 2019 - 10:58am
Yes, Kasich could win. I don’t think he gets past Trump inside the party even though he could do better than Trump in a general election, much like Bernie couldn’t get past Hillary inside the party but could have done better in a general election. Trump’s base is fanatically loyal which he has earned because he has stuck with them in the face of everything. 
Kasich could win because he’s more of an old style Republican than a straight ideologue, more like Dole or McCain or maybe even Kemp. He doesn’t believe that Government is instrinsically Satan like the current Republican leadership and at least half this site. 
Cliff M. Added Feb 10, 2019 - 11:09am
John, You forgot about Bernie. You under estimate the support he garnered in the past. I don't know if he has the support to make it to the big show but he should be a major factor until the end.Not combating the HRC Dem machine and super delegates will make a difference.
Kasich is currently the only sane republican in line after Trump.
Steel Breeze Added Feb 10, 2019 - 11:12am
even if i cared, at this point 2020 is way too iffy for me to worry bout 'who's next'.....but always interesting to read speculations by those concerned....
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 11:21am
The problem is that '20 is coming fast . . . .
Koshersalaami Added Feb 10, 2019 - 11:21am
It is too early. This is just idle speculation but,  then again, so is most of what is said on the site. 
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 11:26am
"Kasich could win because he’s more of an old style Republican than a straight ideologue, more like Dole or McCain or maybe even Kemp. He doesn’t believe that Government is instrinsically Satan like the current Republican leadership and at least half this site."
I don't disagree, but I think Romney might be more inclined t say what Republicans stand for and oppose, which will be needed post-Trump, come what may, especially in terms of blatant nativism. 
Bill H. Added Feb 10, 2019 - 11:26am
I agree with Kosher in that Kasich would be the best candidate for the Republican party. He appears intelligent, compassionate, uniting, and actually concerned for what is best for the country. He claims to be willing to work with the opposing party on issues, and has no hint of the barbaric ego and self-serving traits of Trump.
Leroy - Most women are attracted to compassionate men. They will at times have a "fling" with self-serving, egotistical boneheads, but it only lasts a short time once they figure them out. Hence their attraction to Kasich and disregard for Trump.
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 11:36am
I'm thinking there is too much 'Clinton Fatigue" for her to be a viable candidate again. 
In about 10 years, she will be like Chaplin getting that Honorary Oscar in '72 or President Hoover being honored at GOP gatherings, being trotted out for her close up at various events (far away form any power, but it is the thought that counts).
Koshersalaami Added Feb 10, 2019 - 11:43am
I agree. I don’t think she’s viable. For one thing, I’m not remotely satisfied she learned anything from her defeat other than “campaign more in swing states.” Which is weird because she is highly intelligent. 
I also don’t think she’s yet figured out just how important wealth polarization is. Bernie did, he ran on it,  and he damned near got the nomination without accepting corporate donations, which is as close to a miracle as it gets. But Bernie’s age is an issue.
If she ever learned to really project herself, if she learned how to talk to a crowd like she can talk in a conversation, same problem Gore had, or even if she leveled more in interviews, she’d have a shot.
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 12:28pm
Almost the opposite of what Churchill said of FDR, like Nixon, she had the right kind of intellect and the wrong type of temperament.
Koshersalaami Added Feb 10, 2019 - 12:39pm
For pretty much the same reason: They’re both obviously introverts. A lot of introverts learn how to fake it superlatively but neither of them has. Hillary has the further difficulty of being married to an Ultimate Extrovert who can’t begin to relate to her difficulties. Nixon had the difficulty of being compared to a very comfortable extrovert in 1960. He still almost pulled it off, not that his opponent was an intellectual slouch. Listening to their debates you could cry at the level of discourse we couldn’t begin to approach now.  The closest I’ve seen in recent years was probably Lieberman/Cheney, and that wasn’t close enough. 
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 12:50pm
Although, I would have to say John (and, perhaps especially, Robert) Kennedy also demonstrated strong tendencies towards introversion despite strong tendencies to be public men, who thrived in the spotlight. 
With Myers-Briggs assessments, usually not much separates the INTJs and the ENTJs. 
Koshersalaami Added Feb 10, 2019 - 2:47pm
You think one of them is one of those types? Been a while since I knew that stuff in detail. I'm ESTJ
James Travil Added Feb 10, 2019 - 3:04pm
Kamala Harris is just Hillary Clinton version 2.0. Another neoliberal/neocon pretending to be a "progressive". It didn't work for Hillary and I doubt it will work for Kamala either. If she is the Democratic nominee the Dems may have found their next" only she could lose to Trump". 
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 3:07pm
I'd guess those two were right on the ENTJ/INTJ  boundary.
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 3:15pm
The only reason I disagree is I don't see the aversion to Kamala Harris that I saw with HRC. 
People may really disagree with being Pro-Choice or supporting Medicare For All.  People may really disagree with Harris's prior relationship with Willie Brown (ethically or philosophically or because they are skeeved because Mr. Brown was so much older).  But they don't have the visceral dislike many had for HRC . . .  and there are still people who feel that way about Trump.
It's just a gut instinct, though.
Unrepentant Added Feb 10, 2019 - 3:32pm
John, so in other words, brace yourself for a bunch of cunt candidates, lol. I used to date a woman who taught English (and spoke Spanish) at a certain university. It had a sizeable Hispanic population, and she said that their graduation ceremonies always resembled fanatical and militant political rallies more than anything else. "I'M GOING TO WORK TO END WHITE RULE!!!" and "DOWN WITH WHITES - UP WITH BROWNS!!!" were among the more charming and inclusive sentiments they expressed. I'm sure that Beaner Cortez and those of her ilk are no different. No non-Hispanic person in their right minds should ever vote for a Hispanic, as they are the most shamelessly racist of any single group, by far.
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 4:11pm
Somehow, I suspect it will be a woman this time.  But that is a guess . . . . 
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 4:16pm
What was HRC's campaign saying last time, "It's a girl?"
As for AOC, interesting to see (at least the early part) of how her political career develops. 
As they say in the Catholic Church, he who comes to the Conclave Pope . . .  usually leaves as a Cardinal." 
Unrepentant Added Feb 10, 2019 - 4:17pm
Yeah, I guess we better let a woman win this time, or they'll be out protesting, squawking, and making their men sleep on the couch...wait a second...don't they do that already? What do we actually have to lose here? lol
James Travil Added Feb 10, 2019 - 4:22pm
I for one greatly love and respect the woman in my life, it's just certain other women, and men, that I have a problem with. 
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 5:10pm
Good way to look at it, Mr. Travil, but it is precisely "other women and men" we are talking about!  Hopefully, it will work out . . . .
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 6:30pm
More Pepto-Bismoll hats . . . .
Unrepentant Added Feb 10, 2019 - 7:35pm
Hmmm...I have much more appropriate and/or astringent cleaners in mind, lol.
John Minehan Added Feb 10, 2019 - 7:45pm
To paraphrase LCMDR Scott in By Any Other Name, "It's pink . . . ."
Unrepentant Added Feb 10, 2019 - 8:01pm
LOL...one of my favorites. That actress was definitely out of this world.
Jim Stoner Added Feb 11, 2019 - 2:20am
We haven't even had a female VP yet.  That's what I would bet will happen in 2020.  "Veep" comes to life! 
Jim Stoner Added Feb 11, 2019 - 2:23am
In my mind, it will be Pence/Haley vs. Brown/Yulin Ruiz.  If that 10,000-1 shot happens, you heard it here!
(I wouldn't put this on a Mogg article because he deletes everything.)
opher goodwin Added Feb 11, 2019 - 11:57am
What I can't understand is this big deal that is being made of Warren's Cherokee heritage. Where's the big deal?
John Minehan Added Feb 11, 2019 - 3:38pm
She appears to have availed herself of aid available for people of First Nations heritage while having minimal First Nations heritage.  Pragmatically, she likely denied more deserving people help.  Morally, she seems to be a poseur.   
Cliff M. Added Feb 11, 2019 - 3:48pm
Sanders/Warren 2020. There will be such a big mess by then the GOP won't matter. Trump running for re-election while impeachment hearings are under way should be an interesting sideshow. The shit that is being thrown at Warren is small potatoes compared to what Trump has been hit with and is enduring.
John Minehan Added Feb 11, 2019 - 3:55pm
Suspect the Democrats will nominate a woman again and that the VP will be Booker as a moderate.
Before his difficulties, I thought Ralph Northam was an outside bet for VP, as a moderate Southern Governor, a Veteran and a practicing physician.  (I wonder if his issues arise from a careful vetting for that reason?)  
John Minehan Added Feb 11, 2019 - 3:57pm
I thnk age precludes Sandres, Biden, HRC (and, probably Warren).  In '16, the Dems looked too much like a Gerontocracy. 
Cliff M. Added Feb 11, 2019 - 5:28pm
Mogg, As a person who voted for Trump I would prefer him to be successful in more ways than one. As a pragmatic person who has a tendency to be practical it is hard to be optimistic about the shit show he is embroiled in. I would like to see his populist ideas come to fruition.So far he has been all talk and the only payoffs have gone to the country club set. If he has done anything for the ordinary American please enlighten me as to what that is.
Cliff M. Added Feb 11, 2019 - 6:04pm
With the amount of Trumps cronies indicted, going to jail or both it is hard to picture him remaining unscathed. His shit is going to have more holes in it than a Swiss cheese.My theory is hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.At this point he has lost the support of many of the independents who were critical in getting him elected.As to the current polls, they are favorable but being anything but skeptical about polls these days is naive.
Cullen Kehoe Added Feb 11, 2019 - 6:25pm
Kasich is a neocon despite his 'aww shucks' nice guy routine. In one of the debates in 2016, he advocated the U.S. put troops on the ground in 5 countries (North Korea, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Libya). 
Koshersalaami Added Feb 11, 2019 - 6:54pm
The biggest lie Trump told during the campaign was the one no one seems to talk about: I have too much money to worry about money personally.
Cliff M. Added Feb 11, 2019 - 10:31pm
Mogg, How about explaining the nonsense you spew in English.
Jim Stoner Added Feb 12, 2019 - 1:28am
Cliff M.,  He's just being involuntarily stupid and filling the column with senseless clutter
No, Mogg, you have the bad habit of deleting everything--your article and all comments following it.  Making the whole effort of replying to your prolix screeds pointless. 
Cliff M. Added Feb 12, 2019 - 7:45am
Mogg, I don't know how you were raised but since I was a little kid guilty by association was guilty and still a crime. How about one example of the great things Trump has done to help other than his ilk.If he was one of us I would expect this not to be a problem for you.
Jim, I have had discussions with Mogg before and when he has no factual retort the best he can do is go with is the your an asshole defense. I have been around awhile and am capable of reading and trying to collect objective information to arrive at my own conclusions. Many so called intelligent people no longer maintain this ability. The Republican mantra of if you say and repeat your narrative enough it turns into fact has worn extremely thin.
Koshersalaami Added Feb 12, 2019 - 8:09am
I don’t ordinarily agree with Mogg as my politics are wildly different from his but his last comment made complete sense outside of insults. I’ll try to translate if anyone has trouble. 
I agree with him about guilt by association. You should be guilty of what you do, not guilty of what other people you associate with do. For example: accusing Obama of God Knows What because he’s friendly with Bill Ayers (way after his Weather Underground days) is guilt by association, as is accusing him of anything involving Kenya. Another example: Ted Kennedy and Orrin Hatch were friends; this example works in both directions. 
Regarding Kasich, he doesn’t want to vote for someone who will follow any ideology for votes, which is what Mogg says Kasich basically said he’d do. (Within limits.)
Regarding age: He says old age isn’t the problem it used to be and that we’re disqualifying too many candidates on age in both directions: “You’re not young enough” and “You’re not old enough to be experienced enough.” 
Lastly, he says that we don’t have so many available good candidates that we can reject them easily for a single mistake. What Tulsi Gabbard said at nineteen. What Elizabeth Warren did in Texas. If we say everyone has to be perfect we won’t have anyone left who’s functionally worth a damn.
Cliff M. Added Feb 12, 2019 - 9:01am
Kosher, I'll make this one simple. If a bunch of kids are stealing cookies from the cookie jar and only one gets caught it does not mean the others are innocent. 
Cliff M. Added Feb 12, 2019 - 9:10am
Regarding the age factor, Why does Sanders have such a large appeal to the millenial generation?
Koshersalaami Added Feb 12, 2019 - 9:15am
Agreed, but what point are you elaborating on? 
I have a greater problem with the common phenomenon of widespread knowledge that the bunch of kids is stealing cookies but that only one gets blamed  for it. (That’s one assessment of antizionism in a single sentence.)
Cliff M. Added Feb 12, 2019 - 9:30am
Kosher, It only takes one kid to roll over and finger the whole bunch. I am not saying Trump is guilty but until the fat lady sings it is too soon to assume either guilt or innocence.Getting past this mess and back to real business will be a welcome relief. Didn't the RICO statutes which had a large part in guilt by association take down a large portion of the mob? Are these similar circumstances?
Koshersalaami Added Feb 12, 2019 - 9:41am
Oh, you’re talking about Trump. We don’t get to decide guilt or innocence of actual crime, a judge or jury does if he’s indicted. The rest is bullshit conjecture. 
Cliff M. Added Feb 12, 2019 - 10:51am
At this point we don't know if anyone rolled on something .Mueller has not shown his hand except by design. Is there nothing?lIs there a deal? Will legit charges come to light? Will we go to trial? This thriller still has a ways to go.
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 11:04am
Don't the evils of "guilt by association" really turn on whether we are talking about "guilt" in a criminal sense?
In a criminal law sense, I think that is a Zackowitz issue; admissible, not to prove propensity, but to prove motive, intent, opportunity or common plan or scheme.
In the personal realm, "birds or a feather" probably has a level of value in making judgments, although, Mark 2:16 also comes to mind..
Cliff M. Added Feb 12, 2019 - 11:40am
Criminality is the key issue. The moral issues will be debated and  decided by the voter. As to the outcome, Your guess is as good as mine.
Unrepentant Added Feb 12, 2019 - 11:48am
@ John M. - "Pragmatically, she likely denied more deserving people help.  Morally, she seems to be a poseur."
My sentiments exactly. That aging clam needs to forget about it. Speaking of aging clams:
"I thnk age precludes Sandres, Biden, HRC (and, probably Warren).  In '16, the Dems looked too much like a Gerontocracy."
I think that youth, or relative youth, will be a big factor in 2020.  
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 11:58am
I also think what Peggy Noonan (talking about Ralph Northam of all people) called an "anodyne" quality will be a big help.
Again, why my gut instinct is that Kamala Harris has an inside track.  
Cliff M. Added Feb 12, 2019 - 12:33pm
John, I believe Harris has a shot in one of the next election cycles. She seems to have the newcomer appeal that Obama had. 
JR, I believe that the youth vote will be more important than the age of the candidates.
Unrepentant Added Feb 12, 2019 - 12:39pm
It seems to be more and more about "insiders" and "outsiders". In 1992, Bill Clinton owed much of his success to his relative youth and the fact that he was an "outsider", as only the governor of an impoverished Southern state can be, while Bush 41 was the ultimate "insider". Fast-forward a quarter century, and now the Clintons are the ultimate "insiders", which obviously cost them dearly, while Trump, being the ultimate "outsider", gets away with murder. We either get professional politicians or rank amateurs and not much in between.
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 1:11pm
"We either get professional politicians or rank amateurs and not much in between."
I wonder what "in between"would be today.
Possibly, someone who held office intermittently, possibly at the local or state level,  or perhaps, a Citizen-Soldier (Airman, Marine, Sailor, Coast Guardsman or Merchant Mariner)?
Maybe someone like my former US Representative, COL (R) Gibson?  
Unrepentant Added Feb 12, 2019 - 1:46pm
I can still see it. There's a love seat, two armchairs with a lamp table in between. Jack Kennedy is sitting in one armchair and Bobby Kennedy's sitting in the other. "Mr. President, it's absurd, I'm not qualified." "Look, Bob," he said, "I don't think there's any school for Presidents either."
Robert McNamara
Such is the structure for the professional development of our political leaders, lol.
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 1:58pm
But the CYA potential of having your brother as AG is enormous . . . . 
Jim Stoner Added Feb 12, 2019 - 2:11pm
I'm glad to see that The Pirate has calmed down with the misogyny and racism and is participating in a positive way.
Along the lines he said last, If I were hiring a President of the US, I would look for proven expertise and experience in foreign and military affairs, which is the most important role of that office.  To be honest, the only Dem possible candidates who would make the cut are Biden and HRC (and she will not run; there is zero appetite in the Dem base). 
Right now, though, the main criterion is the plausibility that the candidate can drub the Drumpf.   Someone who is not overly corrupted, strong enough to take the jabs and hit back, but also someone who projects calm rather than chaos.   We shall see--it's not impossible that he could get taken out by his party for reasons of self-preservation--but it's way early. 
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 2:21pm
"We shall see--it's not impossible that he could get taken out by his party for reasons of self-preservation--but it's way early."
I think that would come through the GOP letting someone Primary him; perhaps knowing they would lose the White House and the Senate but also that the Party needs to be re-invented. 
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 2:24pm
"Along the lines he said last, If I were hiring a President of the US, I would look for proven expertise and experience in foreign and military affairs, which is the most important role of that office."
That might be more an ability to find advisers with those skills.   Do you need to be a strategic genius or do you have to know to make Marshall, King and Arnold the JCS?
Unrepentant Added Feb 12, 2019 - 2:24pm
@ John M. - "But the CYA potential of having your brother as AG is enormous . . . ."
That's the problem with dynasties...more heads = more targets. That's another element of American politics I consider to be unhealthy, which is the emergence of dynasties and powers becoming hereditary. By all accounts, RFK was an extraordinarily prickly character, and considering the enemies he made, it was surprising he lasted as long as he did.
Jim Stoner Added Feb 12, 2019 - 2:48pm
John M.  You have to know enough to pick the right advisers.  John Bolton is the link to all our nightmares. 
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 2:50pm
It's sort of been there on and off for a long time: John Adams and John Quincy Adams; William Henry Harrison and Benjamin Harrison; TR and FDR; and some more distant ones (Obama and Cheney being cousins).
It's not so obvious this cycle (so far).  
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 2:56pm
"By all accounts, RFK was an extraordinarily prickly character, and considering the enemies he made, it was surprising he lasted as long as he did."
He was an interesting politician: both deeply idealistic and a true practitioner of real politics; and an unusually private man who had an innate charisma.
More than most people, I suspect the World would be very different had he lived.  It almost seems like most post-1968 politics has been an attempt to fill that void.    
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 2:59pm
"John M.  You have to know enough to pick the right advisers.  John Bolton is the link to all our nightmares. "
But it also seems like whoever appoints him keeps him in a box.
Unrepentant Added Feb 12, 2019 - 3:22pm
My gut feeling is that it's going to be Trump against another woman. I think HRC made a MAJOR tactical mistake by attacking Trump in a very low-road way, rather than playing up her vast experience in government. We're going to HAVE to elect a woman just as surely as we had to elect a black man to the highest office in the land. Whoever takes on Trump (or someone else) should learn those lessons; I laughed my ass off at the HRC anti-Trump commercials, thinking all the while, "Hillary, NOOOOO!!! You're playing right into his hands!" Of course, these are all transient officials who can be more-or-less ignored if and when necessary.
Koshersalaami Added Feb 12, 2019 - 3:38pm
Not much earnest dialogue happens between opposing. sides because sooner or later it always comes down to
You have to be fucking kidding me
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 3:42pm
"Minehan, you prove my point when you equivocate over guilt by association being allowable in any case because it is tangentially represented in other principles. Again, yes if we discount context we can twist a lot into a factoid."
Did you bother to read Zackowitz?
Associations, like many other things that are prejudicial, but necessarily prohibitive, can't prove guilt in a court of law (although they can be admitted to prove other things, motive, intent opportunity and common plan or scheme).
However, to quote Robert Bolt, "The World must construe according to its wits . . . "
You should "equivocate" about something that is highly fact dependent and where we are talking about different realms of endeavor in any event. 
Cliff M. Added Feb 12, 2019 - 3:57pm
Mogg, As I have expected you still have nothing to provide stating Trump's accomplishment's for the ordinary American. I f needed I can give you the other side of the coin on his accomplishment's that have actually done harm and indebted the ordinary America. I have not implicated Trump in any regard and have just stated the range of possibilities that may exist.
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 4:06pm
Trump is hard to run against as his personal conduct over the years sort of creates its own standard.  What can you say for a protege of Roy Cohn?  A man who appeared (as himself) in a film that portrayed a fictionalized version of himself as a child molester?
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 4:07pm
More to the point, what can you say against him that does not sound like hyperbole?
John Minehan Added Feb 12, 2019 - 4:18pm
Mogg, do you understand people are not laughing with you?
Jeff Michka Added Feb 12, 2019 - 6:07pm
Moggy doesn't understand the laughter is directed at him.  If Moggy is a typical Trumpist pig, he'll be deserting the crime family Trump.  I want to see Ivanka in an orange jump suit and saying "Yes, m'am" to a 350lb woman named Shaneeka...Donny Jr. getting cell raped has charms as a good visual, too.  It gets Ryan Messano hot.
Flying Junior Added Feb 13, 2019 - 3:05am
After losing to a shithead like Trump, there is no way in hell Hillary will ever run again.  Honestly, where do you read this stuff?  lolz
I like Kamala Harris.  I'm glad that some here have a gut feeling.  I always have respected her even before she announced.  I miss Ken.  He could tell us exactly why the right fears Harris.
Unrepentant Added Feb 13, 2019 - 4:06am
I'm starting to think that Dogg Turd is EXLAX, I mean EXPAT reincarnated, but then again, not even EXLAX is as stupid as Dogg Turd.
Flying Junior Added Feb 14, 2019 - 3:43am
No.  No questions Mogg.  However, I continue to learn a great deal from you.  Mostly about the role of racial hatred in the indoctrination of the hardcore right via alternative media.
Pimp for BLM.
That kinda says it all.  And yes I am tired of certain posters portraying Kamala Harris as a black woman.  Did you say violent?
One more time one of you brings race into the 2020 presidential election... 
That's a big WTF, buddy.
Yes Ken.  Ken was an honorable conservative.  If you saw him as left-wing, IMNHO that would either certify you as banana fruitcake in the brain or slightly to the right of Hitler.  No wonder he got tired of the Writer Beat.  It could be a place where people of different stripes learn from each other.  In the immortal words of John Belushi, "But, nooo!"
Koshersalaami Added Feb 14, 2019 - 7:19am
Though I am not a supporter of the BLM organization because they have chosen to add the Palestinians to their mandate, a people living in different circumstances for drastically different reasons (their wall worked, and what “worked” means is substantially reducing murders of Israeli civilians), I certainly support the concept. 
Someone here or in the Trump organization will eventually get around to founding a competitive organization: BLDM. 
Cliff M. Added Feb 14, 2019 - 7:22am
Spiro Agnew came up this morning as an interesting ghost from the past. Eliot Richardson was the Gold Standard as an attorney general.
John Minehan Added Feb 14, 2019 - 2:22pm
Ken is a decent man and a thoughtful conservative.  He would not agree with Sen. Harris and would have valuable insights into whether or not he considered her a formidable candidate.
That insight is sorely missed.   
Koshersalaami Added Feb 14, 2019 - 2:27pm
Siding with Trayvon was siding against America? 
Let’s review this:
A Black teenager is watching a basketball game at his father’s house and walks out to a 7-11 to get a snack at halftime. As he walks back, alone in the dark and the rain, an unmarked dark pickup with a burly White guy in his thirties behind the wheel starts slowly tailing him. The kid texts a friend (a White girl) that he’s being followed by some cracker. The driver then proceeds to follow him on foot,  After being told explicitly by police not to. He gets into an altercation with the kid resulting in the kid being shot to death. 
Notice anything missing?
There is no evidence presented that Zimmerman ever identifiedhimself as Neighborhood Watch. Real Neighborhood Watch would never do this, because they insist on marked vehicles, marked clothing, and no guns. Zimmerman is 0 for 3. So Trayvon has every reason to believe he’s being followed by a mugger. 
To my knowledge, the fact that Trayvon is highly unlikely to have known the identity of Zimmerman didn’t come up at trial. That’s pretty, I don’t know, incompetent, when the question in the trial is who was the assailant. If Trayvon were my kid I’d sure be up in arms about how he was treated. The President was right.
John Minehan Added Feb 14, 2019 - 3:06pm
Nice recitation of the facts.
I talked to a few people who practice criminal law in Florida.  Excessive use of force in self-defense is usually charged as Manslaughter.  
There was a sense that a conviction was certain . . . if it were not charged as murder.
It was a tragedy across the board.
Koshersalaami Added Feb 14, 2019 - 3:28pm
I still have to wonder if the fact that the defendant’s father was a prominent local judge had anything to do with how the prosecution was handled. That gap in the case is too damned big.
John Minehan Added Feb 15, 2019 - 9:00am
His father was a magistrate in Fairfax County Virginia, from what I understand. 
Koshersalaami Added Feb 15, 2019 - 9:23pm
Former judge in Orange County
Flying Junior Added Feb 16, 2019 - 3:40am
I am not aware of any connection between Black Lives Matter and Palestine.  You can bet that I am down with various American chapters.
Ken did weigh in on Kamala Harris.  He had several criticisms.  But he did not identify her as a black woman.  I do remember that.